Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 1.049692 1.194157 1.347161 1.520854 1.712123 1.915886 2.148928
2025-02-09 0.819573 1.012424 1.229892 1.491658 1.796486 2.138524 2.549524
2025-02-16 0.651149 0.872078 1.136753 1.473338 1.885822 2.370554 2.978623
2025-02-23 0.502004 0.731467 1.023969 1.416903 1.922945 2.544318 3.355630
2025-03-02 0.376117 0.599425 0.903133 1.334472 1.917935 2.665468 3.679286
2025-03-09 0.299068 0.520187 0.840170 1.318800 1.995791 2.896573 4.159471
2025-03-16 0.233610 0.445358 0.771975 1.286561 2.046903 3.095959 4.613546
2025-03-23 0.196203 0.407146 0.751916 1.320614 2.193273 3.434982 5.279020
2025-03-30 0.150340 0.344469 0.683511 1.272156 2.213501 3.598030 5.712110
2025-04-06 0.118901 0.300315 0.638024 1.253186 2.274907 3.823185 6.246467
2025-04-13 0.092286 0.258513 0.589157 1.221437 2.311774 4.012866 6.739500
2025-04-20 0.077080 0.236799 0.573404 1.244264 2.437991 4.345584 7.463071
2025-04-27 0.063422 0.215525 0.556517 1.266130 2.570136 4.705190 8.262903
2025-05-04 0.050860 0.192782 0.532420 1.271432 2.674494 5.028190 9.026405
2025-05-11 0.040851 0.173190 0.511254 1.279531 2.784465 5.367691 9.835568
2025-05-18 0.030691 0.148577 0.473223 1.247903 2.818548 5.582712 10.457140
2025-05-25 0.021672 0.122613 0.425353 1.187731 2.792092 5.691726 10.910698
2025-06-01 0.016782 0.108733 0.404999 1.184651 2.875108 5.995353 11.702125
2025-06-08 0.012460 0.094132 0.378754 1.163786 2.920059 6.233270 12.393526
2025-06-15 0.010413 0.088590 0.377508 1.202253 3.089482 6.705537 13.507629
2025-06-22 0.007314 0.074744 0.346690 1.162742 3.091335 6.868861 14.091878
2025-06-29 0.005375 0.065388 0.327426 1.149325 3.147100 7.134944 14.867328
2025-07-06 0.003772 0.056012 0.304829 1.122987 3.171182 7.340816 15.542780